Trudeau vs Poilievre: Toronto byelection could be ‘referendum’ on PM | TREND LINE

welcome to CTV News trend line with Michael SLE and Nick Nanos Nick the House of Commons is about to rise for the summer and the Liberals are trying to make the capital gains tax uh wedge issue we’ll talk about that a little later but first what’s the latest ballot tracking well check out the long-term trend line Michael you know the conservatives still firmly in the driver seat you can see that they’re in the low 40s but check out the Liberals a little bit of a uptick up to 29% NDP 18 block seven green party4 um you know the thing is is you look at the trend line the conservatives have had upwards of a 20 point Advantage now it’s uh you know in the low teens like 12 I think it’s about 12% advantage that that said 12% Advantage is still enough to win a majority government Michael so I’m not sure the conservatives should be noticing this a little too early for a panic button because 12 points is still pretty good well ni a big test for the Liberals will be coming up on June 24th that’s the byelection at Toronto uh St Paul’s I think it’s fair to say that that’s the very definition of a liberal stronghold yeah 100% you know first of all it’s in Toronto old city of Toronto proper which is why don’t we call it Fortress liberal at least historically um and uh you know St Paul’s uh has always been a writing that uh usually has has has has basically voted liberal I think a lot of people are going to be reading entrails on this because we are getting closer to the election referendums sometimes are sorry byelections are sometimes referendums on the government of the day and uh you know it’s interesting you know you’re PV has been there my understanding is he’s been there Justin Trudeau is there why would Pier PV in the conservative be going into that writing if they didn’t think that they’d be doing respectively so I think uh say the Liberals win the byelection if it’s close um it’ll create for some uh I think as a previous prime minister liberal prime minister said some nervous Nellies in the not to offend any Nellies that are listeners or viewers of the podcast but some nervous Nellies um in the in the liberal caucus uh and uh it’s going to be interesting to see what happens how motivated are the liberals liberal voters in that rotting how motivated are the conservatives the other question we’ve talked about this before in byelections what will happen NDP support in the other byelections we’ve seen NDP support Decline and the Liberals gain at the very last minute I’m sure Justin Trudeau is probably hoping for something like that in Toronto St Paul’s uh how how well do the Liberals need to do there for uh prime minister Justin Trudeau to sort of escape this this speculation about his uh his future in the party well if if the liberals do as well in the byelection as they do in the general election it’ll be like that song Don’t Worry Be Happy that’ll be like what the Liberals will probably be saying in terms of Justin Trudeau’s leadership um but anything that narrows uh people will be looking at very uh very closely um and the other thing is is that you know there aren’t very high expectations for the conservatives because this is a traditionally liberal riding uh but a strong soar for the conservatives will just show that they’ll be more of a factor and you know what if the conservatives are starting to do better in the city of Toronto just multiply that Michael when it comes to the suburbs like suburbs in the Golden Horseshoe that means that they’re probably going to be even more of a force in the uh in the surrounding Toronto suburban area uh no doubt Nick Trudeau is under a lot of pressure over the over the results of this uh byelection you’ve done a survey about how Canadians feel who should be leading the federal Liberal Party into the next election and what did you find out well we gave people three options Justin Trudeau as the individual that would lead the Liberals in the next federal election someone other than Justin Trudeau why don’t we call it the mystery leader no name included or no preference you can see um in our Benchmark back in December 2022 uh by a margin of two to one uh Canadians preferred that someone other than Justin Trudeau be the lead the Liberals you can see 5125 17 no preference check out the latest numbers in the in the poll that we just uh finished that we uh did with CTV News it’s now 56 someone other than Justin Trudeau 17 Justin Trudeau so Justin Trudeau has gone down a further eight eight percentage points and you know we talked about the 2 to1 margin someone other than Justin Trudeau back in December 2022 now that’s a three to one margin uh for someone other than Justin Trudeau so the trend not going in the in the right direction if you happen to be Justin Trudeau with a significant proportion of Canadians thinking that someone other than that individual Justin Trudeau should be leading the Liberals in the next federal election uh Nick we we obviously we’re not psychic we don’t have the the answers to this but I’m curious for those liberal voters who would prefer a different leader I mean who who would they have in mind and and would it be a cabinet minister or or do they know well there’s been a whole variety of individuals that have been speculated the one thing in any of the polling related to possible Replacements a lot of it is related to or driven by name recognition or awareness of the individual why don’t we just use an example chrisa Freeland as a as a very highlevel member of the cabinet Deputy Prime Minister Minister of Finance in the news a lot she scores she scores well as uh as a potential candidate as does uh someone like Mark Carney former governor of the Bank of Canada and the bank of England and uh so you know the thing is is that these polls that have other candidates sometimes can be a bit misleading because Canadians are not selecting the next leader of the liberal party members of the Liberal Party are and this is where kind of insiders individuals that might not have as much uh profile nationally can be uh can be a force to be reckoned with and a factor if there was uh an election but right now it’s like uh fantasy what fantasy liberal leadership I guess uh you want to call it that uh could be a nightmare of the fantasy or perhaps something more positive depending on how things play itself out but uh you know the reality is is I’m not sure if there’s one clear individual uh that has the upper hand but there’s a bit of a what don’t we call it a political Buffet for people to choose from ranging from Mark Carney chrisa Freeland Dominic LeBlanc shant Minister champagne those types of individuals uh Nick finally we’re we’re almost into the summer heidas for the House of Commons uh if you’re prime minister Justin Trudeau and you’re seeing these poll results what what’s your strategy over the summer well one thing we have to remember and this kind of goes outside of the polling data is I don’t think Justin Trudeau is going to be spooked by numbers like this and why I say this is you know he grew up because his father was prime minister his father at the tail end of his uh mandate in the 1970s uh was actually quite unpopular you know for Justin Trudeau he’s probably been at the at the kitchen table and uh remembers the environment where his dad was not popular was not popular in the West and his dad actually resigned and then came back so I don’t think he I don’t think he’s going to be nervous about numbers like this because he’s actually lived this before as uh as a young person but you know the thing is is he’s got a he’s got a way you know what is in the best interest of the party uh is he the best person in order to take on Pierre PV and uh what it might mean if he’s the uh candidate and the other thing that he has to weigh is the uh impact uh that being prime minister and leader of the liberal party has had on his personal life in terms of the stress that it has put on his family so I don’t think anybody really knows uh except for Justin Trudeau uh what he’s going to do but I don’t think he’s going to be nervous looking at numbers like this because of his uh because his personal history with his family so uh I don’t know flip a coin depends on how they feel one day might be might be time to say might be time to resign another time he might say he’s ready uh he’s ready willing and able uh to fight Pier PV and uh and take on the conservatives Nick we’re going to take a little break and when we come back we’ll look at the capital gains [Music] tax uh Nick Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister chrisa Freeland is trying to turn the capital gains tax inclusion rate increase into a wedge issue uh to divide supporters of the conservatives and liberals um first of all I’m just curious what you think of this strategy and then we’ll look at how Canadians feel about uh about the increase well the popular wisdom is increasing taxes as an election strategy not generally good uh because you’re obviously going to have some people that will not be happy with the increased taxes regardless of how large or small that group might be I think the Liberals uh believe that this is a vote winner uh for them in terms of making them more competitive with the with the conservatives still too early to say uh how this will play itself out right now uh Nick you’ve done a survey on how Canadians feel the increasing the inclusion rate uh will impact the economy when did you find out yeah in the survey that we did with Bloomberg news that we just released uh we asked Canadians about their perceptions of the the proposed changes to the capital gains tax uh 45% of Canadians and this was the most popular response not a majority but the most popular response response uh believe that uh the changes would result in decreased investment and Innovation and potentially weaken the economy 38% uh actually thought that it was fair it would helped close the gap between rich and poor about 177% were un Shore that 45% kind of negativity decreasing investment and stuff like that jumps Michael to 56% in uh in the praries but politically I’d like to put a spot on one thing think of it this way the Liberals are at 29% in the Nanos ballot tracking 38% of Canadians believe that the changes are fair and it’ll help close the gap between rich and poor I think this is why the Liberals see this policy as having a potential upside yeah maybe not everybody the tax but perhaps there are enough individuals on the Progressive side of the ledger to uh that that believe that it is a fair tax uh especially when it comes to Clos the gap between rich and poor in order to push those uh liberal numbers up a little bit uh Nick I think we’ll leave it there as always thanks very much okay take it easy

CTV News’ Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down the latest ballot tracking from Nanos Research – Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is still far ahead but the Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen a slight bump.

Trudeau will face a key test in a byelection in Toronto. Nik explains how it could end up being both a referendum on the Liberal Party and the prime minister’s leadership.

Nik also has the results of a recent survey done on who Canadians would prefer to be leading the Liberal Party – He breaks it down.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party opposed the Liberals’ plan to increase Canada’s capital gains inclusion rate, in a vote that still passed with the backing of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois.

How do Canadians feel about the changes? Nik explains what he’s seeing from the data.

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