The Front Bench on the capital gains debate | Power Play with Vassy Kapelos

tax talk dominating the House of Commons today following yesterday’s vote on the Liberals motion to increase the capital gains inclusion rate the Tories voted nay while the Liberals backed by the NDP and bl hiqua voted yay so what’s the political strategy and potential impact with all of this let’s bring in the front bench to talk about that klen Varan is the former Chief of Staff to late liberal cabinet minister Jim Carr she’s an associate vice president now with Suma strategies former Alberta MLA and cabinet minister Gary Mara with us he’s the president and CEO of the Canada West Foundation next to carlen If you’re looking at the top of your screen to follow along former interim NDP National director Carl belog is here he’s now the president of traction strategies and rounding us out next to Carl Maro Walsh is a senior political reporter with the globe in mail hi everybody nice to see you carlen I I’ll start with you we knew months ago this was going to be a wedge the conservatives ended up taking uh taking the so-called bait I guess versus the anti-cab legislation I think we were talking about uh last time do you think the Liberals landed the political punch they aimed to with this well I certainly don’t think the conservatives landed it I mean they sort of waited till the last possible moment when the Finance Minister actually tabled the ways and means motion for this tax to actually decide what they were going to do about it and I’m I’m sure that that was because there was a fair amount of debate internally within the conservative party over how they were going to play this um but a good role in politics is generally when somebody tells you who they are believe them um and I think we see that the the the part of the party that wants to see rich people do okay is the side that went out um in this case I think it was a bit of a political misstep they could have easily just supported this motion and and let it be over with instead they’re going to spend the entire summer explaining over and over again why it is that they oppose this tax I sort of feel like they would frame it differently as I guess Carl that that their framing is and I think why there was debate is because they knew the Liberals would say that you’re essentially Sting with wealthy people over working people and they are framing it as an additional tax sort of feeding into the more broad narrative that they have uh characterized the Liberals as hiking taxes hiking expenses for Canadians do you what do you think what’s your assessment of of that well I I think what’s interesting is how they did not take debate in the first place they waited and waited and waited and I think they were kind of hoping it would go away and they would just vote against the budget as all and everything that comes along and so splitting it that way uh the Liberals were sitting up the Trap and I I think the conservatives decided well we’ll then we’ll call your Bluff and we’ll go at it on this issue and in a way it was kind of refreshing for them to take their time to come up with a position and kind of disappointing that their you know the go-to phrase is economic vandalism which is kind of you know lame to be honest uh but the debate in itself is interesting because they they you know there are some impact that that on some people doctors is a prime target but also you know homeowners people that have bought duplex and Triplex and apartment building as part of their pension plan because they don’t have an actual Pension Plan uh they’ll be impacted but it’s a small margin population the bigger narrative is about the Liberals bring in other taxes they always bringing more taxes that’s the solution to everything and the Liberals will say well these guys are selling with the wealthy not with the working people so far working people don’t believe them well that’s I think kind of the key question strategically maica like it if you have these two competing arguments one is the conservatives are out for wealthy people not working people the other is the Liberals just want to make your life more expensive like ultimately what will resonate or or do both have a fair shot I think we don’t know which one will resonate I think the Liberals have struggled to really get out a clear message on why they’re doing it and what the frame and the argument for it is um I think you saw Mr PV even in those clips and in the house later putting a motion forward to try and force the government to confirm that it won’t affect anybody below the top 0.13% because actually the government show will affect other people um look I think to caren’s point this is not going to be or I’d be surprised to see this being the issue that the conservatives are forced to talk about all summer long I don’t think it has the legs that the Liberals are hoping it has I do politically find it very interesting that the conservatives have decided to take on the fight rather than backing down as they did in the anti-cab legislation that you mentioned and you know part of it might just be their brand it’s hard to say we’re against taxes we’re against the carbon Tax Act the tax as your main slogan and then raise the tax somewhere else well and I think also to caren’s point Gary there was a lot of debate I had heard in caucus over the anti-cab legislation and there was even more so a fight behind the scenes on this I think on principle it would be hard to sell it to a lot of you know true blue conservatives vote for a tax increase even though like ma says your entire brand is is not about that even if it is strateg might strategically save you I imagine that’d be a harder a harder thing to convince them well I think I think you’re right I think uh ma is also right that this might not have the kind of legs that the Liberals are hoping for in over the course of the summer because uh the reality is not many Canadians understand um capital gains taxes however they do understand the cost of their groceries they do understand the cost of their gasoline they do understand the cost of taxes going up in all kinds of way shapes and forms uh I think what will be uh interesting to see in all of this is uh whether Mr POV is able to um persuade retirees uh that this is a really bad piece of legislation to move forward uh largely because it’s retroactive uh it’s not prospective you’re taxing something where people have planned their retirements on things uh based on a certain set of rules and now you’re changing the rules uh somebody who’s 25 years old might be able to arrange their Affairs in such a way uh that they won’t attract capital gains tax in the same way but somebody who’s 70 uh is not going to be able to do the same thing doctors uh same thing I mean it’s interesting to me that you know that Canadian Medical Association is opposed to this and they’re saying we don’t have pension plans and so this kind of tax will affect us uh Christa freeland’s uh response is well uh maybe the capital gains tax money should go to paying more do more for doctors uh well if that’s the case then you know why yeah the provinces should and so the question is well why are you taxing them if you’re just you know wanting to uh pay them more I mean uh don’t tax them in the first place so there’s a lot of things that I think that um you know are criticisms legitimate criticisms of this policy um going forward in the manner in which it’s going just want to ask from a strategic perspective because the older vote is a significant one still for the Liberals if you look at demographic breakdowns and all public opinion polling it’s like the one that’s hanging on closest to the Liberals and the I wanted to get your thoughts on that but also just like what seems to me a strategic decision that to attack left on an issue like this that there are votes to be had in that sphere versus the ones you might lose from the center in the people that that Gary is is referencing like what’s the play there well when you talk about older demographics I mean let’s not forget the lifetime exemption for capital gains has actually gone up with Christoph freeland’s proposal so you can take a win follow of up to uh over a million dollars before you’re having to pay more taxes so if you’re sitting in that camp you’re already pretty above average in terms of where can most Canadians sit financially even retired people people who are retiring on an amount to live off of that’s over a million dollars are are are not the average Canadian um but for those folks who are affected um I think what’s interesting is the Liberals did do a lot of public opinion research internally as they were crafting this budget um and they looked into things like this and what they saw was that young people really really over indexed on wanting to see measures taken by the government to pull a little bit more from the wealthiest Canadians in order to payu like no well I mean they they’re thinking about how they’re going to afford a host can’t yeah so um you know you you rais this $20 billion in Revenue um and you use it to pay for things like a housing plan and a dental plan and a national school food program the Liberals are really confident that this is going to move the dial where it needs to and we’ve seen some of that pulling in the last few weeks that showed that that Gap has been narrowing um from 24 to 16 to 12 points overall that they’ve been gaining in support with young people still a long way to go before the election but if I’m sitting over in pmo right now I think I’m seeing all the signals that I’m making the right moves and I need to keep moving forward with like 30 seconds and Carl is not maybe as convinced as you are somehow don’t think that young people will be you know so hopeful about the capital gains tax Chang is that they will go vote in the next election that’s where I think the argument Falls a little flat because it doesn’t affect them they may like it I don’t think it’s a vote motivator okay we have to leave it there lots more to discuss

The Front Bench discusses the political strategies and potential impact of the federal government’s plan to increase the capital gains tax.

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