What Jamil Javani’s win will mean for Conservatives | Power Play with Vassy Kapelos

The riding is a Tory stronghold and has been for two decades but Javan did also succeed in increasing as we said his party share of the votes from 2021 when the candidate then happened to be the leader of the conservative party at the time what could the results tell us

About National political battle lines let’s bring in the front bench with me tonight former New Brunswick liberal Premier Brian Gant he’s now the CEO of space Canada former conservative Deputy leader Lisa rate she’s the vice chair and managing director of global investment banking at CIBC CTV News political analyst and former NDP leader

Tom Ware is with us as is the Toronto Stars Queens Park bureau chief Rob benzy hi everybody great to see you tonight uh Lisa I will start with you the size of the victory is definitely not a small one but in the past when we have you know talked about byelections everyone’s

Oh it’s just a byelection only 29% turn out like is there more to this story in your view oh absolutely I mean I think that the message is getting through I think people who want to vote conservative went out and voted and people who are disenchanted with the NDP

And the Liberals either they gave their vote to the conservatives or they ended up just staying home I I think it’s a a really big win I do think it’s a proxy for the general election to be honest and for me I mean I ran in the 2011

Majority that Harper won I mean Bev Oda at that point she got uh she what did she got she got 53% I think and this is the highest share since and and Bev was a very well respect that was a very rural riding at the time and quite the

Conservative base now it’s very Urban and he pulled off 57% congratulations good for him Tom in your view it do you think it is a proxy for the general I agree with Lisa on this one I I think that anybody who was believing that maybe the polling companies were

All wrong at the same time had a bit of a wakeup call yesterday I also agree with Lisa that there is a temporizing effect on people’s artor when they know that they’re candidate and their party don’t have much of a chance so I don’t see much in the 10% result for the NDP

Other than the fact that a lot of ndpers just said nah I think I’m going to pass on this one and stay home I think Mr Trudeau has to be very concerned with with what he saw and I have to say that jam gavani I got a chance to do radio

With him any number of times and I always found him such a refreshing character I would really keep my eyes on this guy when he finally makes it into the house I think he’s going to shake things up a bit yeah yeah he’s going to be definitely someone to watch Rob you

Were reporting today about some of the friction between him and the Prov government there he worked in a number of different capacities I should also disclose for our audience that he used to work for B media and he has filed a lawsuit claiming breach of contract and wrongful dismissal just for full

Disclosure B media of course owns CTV News what’s your impression of his potential star power and the meaning of this for the Tories I mean Lisa’s right it’s a big win for the Tories uh much better than they did in Miss Saga Lake Shore a year ago uh which shows you that

They’ve learned some lessons on how to run byelections so that’s good for them um Mr Javan is as Tom says a very good communicator a Yale educated uh lawyer uh he you know he he’s he’s cited in in the in the in JD Vance’s Hill bology

He’s a friend of JD Vance the senator from Ohio who wrote that famous book a few years ago and they were at Yale together but Mr Javan is going it’s going to be interesting to see what a challenge he poses for The Gatekeepers around Pier PV because he has a healthy

Sense of self and he’s very confident guy and I think last night when he attacked the ontar the quote unquote liberal Elites at the Ontario Ministry of Education that ruffled a lot of feathers at Queens Park Premier Doug Ford education Minister Steven leche who doesn’t really need a lecture on his uh

Conservative credentials from any anyone really I mean Mr leche worked for Prime Minister Steven Harper when Lisa was in in government so I think there were a lot of people wondering why Jamal javanni a former Ford staffer would rail against uh the provincial government the way that he did last night it’s just

It’s very odd on a wider scale Brian if you were in the liberal War I think it’s you know prudent to point out the Liberals showed up in droves to try and help their candidate a lot of prominent ministers and MPS from the GTA so did the conservatives like the top Echelon of

Organizers around pev were there last night one of our panelists said well there wasn’t much better to do but it seems like there was you know a healthy amount of interest in what the outcome of this would be would you be worried that they were able if you were among

The Liberals right now that the conses were able to increase their vote share not just win in a secure Bing but increase their vote share so so I wouldn’t look too much into it and only because the way that I kind of look at especially a byelection as you mentioned

I think everything you mentioned in the Preamble before the segment is true it’s a byelection we shouldn’t read too much into it but can it give a signal sure and I wouldn’t I wouldn’t sort of panic or anything just based on this because if you got all the polling that we’ve

Seen before out of the way and you just looked at these results in isolation you had no narrative coming into the byelection I’m not sure the Liberals would see that in Panic it’s a stronghold it’s a byelection I don’t know if they would say oh oh wow how did

We not do how we not win how do we not do that much better that said I think it does sort of confirm the narrative so I definitely would suggest that the the room in which you describe which I wasn’t invited to but the room that you

Describe uh that the Liberals in it say to themselves look this is confirming the narrative the polls are real I don’t think they’re really doubting the polls anyway so I don’t think they needed that but but this is definitely proen the pudding this is where the mood of the

Electorate is at the moment uh no no reason to think otherwise so you really got to take that seriously and then start to take actions that will hopefully for the Liberals fortunes be able to shift the mood and and have people have the perspective on their government that they need going into the

Next election campaign Tom touched on this Lisa but the NDP uh outcome in this is also I think uh somewhat significant when you combine it with other bi-election outcomes what would you be reading into it um if you were in the NDP circles that the workingclass vote is going to conservatives that the

Message is connecting Durham has a pretty strong I would say NDP presence they usually come second I think in that writing and quite frankly I I would be concerned if I were both liberal and NDP um clearly the conservatives have wanted to go for that vote for a long time

They’ve been courting it they’ve been saying the things that appeal to workingclass voters and Tom will tell you about the blue orange switch it is real and it’s happening right here right now in real time they did something really interesting recently Tom the Tories which wasn’t heavily um covered just

Because it was kind of in the progression of the way legislation works but there’s anti-cab legislation and it needed to move to a different reading and required unanimous consent and the Tories offered their consent to make it unanimous which you know reveals to me exactly sort of what Lisa is laying out

That they’re going hard after a vote that traditionally has gone to the NDP yep and they were not going to leave that on the table and I was really surprised when they did it but it was smart politics they just looked at this thing saying it’s going to pass one way

Or the other do we want to give them a cudel to hit us with and saying ah when you know when the chips were down when it was a question of anti-cab legislation they were not what the workers don’t believe the conservatives the conservatives were super smart and

That is being Fleet footed you know to turn around that quickly and say no no we’re going to vote for this thing we’re going to give unanimous consent as you just said vashy and I think that Lisa is right we did have that exact term for

Them we used to call them uh you know orange blue switchers people who would you know stay with their unions stay close to the working class and stay close to the NDP as best Representatives they’re looking around the room right now and saying these guys are talking

About stuff that I find important my kids can’t afford a house I was able to buy a house why won’t my kids be able to do that even though they’re working hard P has been zeroing in on those affordability issues key key questions like housing it’s starting to pay off

For them and that’s why it’s showing up in the polls and that’s why it’s showing up as it did last night in The Ballot Box which is of course far more important than polls

Panellists discuss what Conservative Jamil Javani’s win in Durham’s federal byelection will mean for the party.

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