For more on this we’ve reached Daniel Levy he’s a former Israeli Peace negotiator and president of the US Middle East project a not for-profit policy Institute and he joins us this morning from London Mr Levy thank you so much for joining us this morning pleasure to be with you marann
Despite the circumstances absolutely and and let’s just talk about what we’re hearing so far that Israel has essentially agreed to a plan that would see a 6 week ceasefire in exchange for hostages and the US says the ball is now in hamas’s court so what do you make of where things stand right
Now well these negotiations have of course been ongoing with the mediators Egypt Qatar the US dealing uh back toback with the Israeli side and the Hamas side I think the the details really matter so when the US says Israel has more or less agreed to the framework
We’re going to have to drill down on that uh I fear that what we’re looking at is a blame game because there’s two ways of interpreting what’s happening right now Maran the hopeful way of interpreting it is that we are edging closer and therefore there is a a
Maneuver going on by each side trying to increase the pressure on the other not wanting to be blamed the other is that the terms of this Arrangement are still not close enough the fundamental Gap is an Israeli position which says six we followed by and here it’s important to
Pay attention to the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his War cabinet because they are saying they they are fully unequivocally committed to continuing the war after the 40-day pause and that they will move on rougher where 1.5 million Palestinians have been kettled having been sent from one place
To another told that’s a safe Zone it became anything but so that’s the Israeli position more war the Hamas position is unless there are guarantees that this is going to be the on-ramp to a permanent ceasefire then there will not be a deal now is there going to be
An attempt to fudge that to tr and thicken the layers where it becomes more and more implausible even if it desires to do so for Israel to continue with this level of operation and destruction or is that just going to be a fundamental Break Even if we overcome
That question there’s the details of who will be released from the hostages this is the only way the hostages will get out in in real numbers what kinds of humanitarian assistance how quantities will Israel allow in given the horrendous conditions for the Palestinian civilian population will
Palestinians be able to move back to the north where will Israel position itself militarily during this pause which Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails numbers type of prisoners will be released that’s an awful lot to still get closure on Maran a lot of questions there also um let’s talk about Hamas
Because you’re saying this could be uh pointing fingers at this point Hamas is a deal could be reached very soon if Israel agrees to a military withdrawal from Gaza and more Aid so uh just talking more about where you’ve been taking us so far how realistic is
That you know what I think is is the key to understanding this Maran I think the details if we are not going to get a deal then of course each side is going to point to the other in terms of why it didn’t happen and we have to remember here that
You also have a sovereign state it’s an occupying power that has responsibilities on the Israeli side of course Hamas I think the investigations will be clear violated international law in the nature of the action it undertook on October 7th Israel since October 7th indiscriminately targeting civilians now in violation of the provisional measures
Called for by the international court of justice in a case of the plausible committing of genocide has also been in violation of law international law every day since so if we step back I think the real question is will there be leverage in order to get this to end I think
Hamas will accept a ceasefire and a release of those hostages under the right conditions will Israel accept a ceasefire and the conditions where they can bring the hostages back and the determining Point might be because things are quite stalemated on the battlefield you don’t have other levers the determining Point might be whether
The Biden Administration in the US wants to play the blame game wants to look as if it cares by doing airdrops which are woefully insufficient or actually wants to bring this to an end because the Biden Administration has the leverage on the Israeli government if it stops providing the arms especially to get
Terms out of Israel which could be acceptable more broadly and could end this thus far that has not been the position of the Biden Administration and that is really the dynamic we’re in here more than anything else and you’re speaking to us of course as a former
Negotiator we are looking at a timeline the clock is ticking both parties want an agreement before Ramadan that’s a week from now so speaking uh more as your uh with your experience as a former negoti J what is the most important thing you need that needs to get done in
Order for this deal to be done it really depends whether there can be a compelling enough case made that despite the commitment and intentions of Israel to continue the war that there is a strong reason to believe from the Palestinian Hamas side that the war could end and then it’s a question of
Pushing through on the final details however Ramadan beginning the holy month beginning is not a magic date and if more is not done to change that equation and especially because there is a debate inside Israel not over whether they should do the mission or not in general but there
Is a debate over whether to prioritize the hostages and whether this this Narrative of total Victory which is to unrealistic is something they should still pursue there is some exhaustion in the military side is Israel going to go with the nanyu permanent War Vision or
Are they going to be reigned back in and the more they are allowed to act with impunity and to believe they have a permanent War option the more likely they are going to prefer the Lame Game to the getting this done and that’s why one of the reasons
Why you have the families of the hostages marching on Jerusalem owling to their government prioritize our hostages because that is something that nanyu has conspicuously not done which isn’t to say there are not things Hamas have to undertake but I do think that Hamas have
Set out a position which we have to be honest is not unreasonable which is to have a ceasefire I’m not saying October 7th was reasonable but the negotiating position today is not unreasonable let’s talk about um just the looking forward um Talk of this two-state solution very much uh revived
In the past few months um this is an idea that didn’t work before uh we don’t know what this means uh looking forward why is this something Western Nations uh are still coming back to if there aren’t new ideas brought to the table where does that leave this
Conflict I think you put your finger on it Maran I I see very little value or seriousness uh or intellectual honesty let alone political honesty in the return to talk of a two-state uh outcome when they are not suggesting to do anything different to what was done in
The past this collapsed in significant measure because Israel could do everything to undermine a two-state outcome with no costs or Consequences and therefore the Israeli public who were told listen whatever you think of the Palestinians human subhuman and this was the language being used we can’t get away with it we’re going to
Have to give them their state and then Israel saw that it could build more settlements it could entrench occupation it could displace Palestinians it could put in place a system which the Blue Chip human rights organizations in the world amnesty Human Rights Watch and 25 states that the international court of
Justice has said is a system of apartheid and the likes of Canada the US Western Europe would all sit around and say we will not hold you to account maybe occasionally we’ll use some rhetoric to say really finger wag you shouldn’t do this but everything else went on as usual and in this
Asymmetrical type of conflict in this balance of power if the party that is permanently in occupation and denying Palestinian rights is not held to account and feels it can get away with it then unfortunately and this is what we’ve experienced unfortunately the politics gets more and more extreme
Until you have the likes of lira nanyu and these guys Ben smich who don’t Flinch at the accusation of a party they wear it as a badge of Pride you have them in government so unless Palestinians can choose a leadership that really represents them unless the
Monopoly of the US is changed and unless Israel is held to account for preventing Palestinian rights I don’t think the new found talk of Peace in two states is any more serious than the failures of the last decades Daniel ly I want to thank you so much for your time your insights
Your opinions this morning Daniel Levy is a former Israeli Peace negotiator
Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator, discusses the prospects for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and what it could take for both sides to agree on one.
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