Nanos: Liberals could lose key seats if election held today | Power Play with Vassy Kapelos

Perhaps the biggest political story in the past many months has been the steady climb of the conservative numbers in the public opinion polling Pier pv’s Tories hold a significant lead over the governing liberals take a look at these the latest numbers from Nanos research especially on ballot support here they

Are the Tories are at 40% the Liberals just below 25 and the NDP in third at just over 20% so what does that mean for actual seats latest Nanos projection show key liberal ridings in Toronto Vancouver and in Montreal those aren’t in play but the other two are for the

Conservatives joining us now Nick Nanos to break down all the numbers thanks for joining us Nick so start with us on that Big City issue is this a big problem for the Liberals it’s a massive problem for the Liberals because the Liberals have built their power on big cities

Especially downtown areas like high density urban areas like Toronto Vancouver so they usually have a lock on those and then they fight the battle in the burps and smaller communities in order to try to win government and right now what we’re seeing in two of the three big cities the liberal grip is

Starting to unravel what does that tell you about what their message is there and maybe what Pier pov’s message is is it getting through to the people well I think uh I think first of all we have different things happening in some of those big cities you know the in

Montreal for example it’s still a lock for uh for the liberals so why don’t we still call that Fortress Ral Fortress Montreal uh the NDP might pick up one seat that’s kind of in play right now but uh when we get to Toronto I think a

Lot of it has to do with Pier pov’s focus on meat and potatoes issues like the rising cost of living and uh stuff like that and it’s just resonating with Ontario voters and Toronto voters who are very much more focused on the economy than voters in other parts of

The country so you know when we look at Toronto for example the city of Toronto which in the past has been rock solid red uh probably half the ridings there right now are in play the new Democrats are poised to pick up some ridings in uh

In downtown Toronto and then when we get to the BBS the Tories come into play where they’re looking at and probably will pick up seats at the expense of the Liberals and then Vancouver and some of those are either three-way races or you know what I like to call orange blue

Races some of them are you know all three what are you seeing there that’s interesting is particularly in Vancouver where the Liberals always trying to make big gains absolutely visually it’s a I don’t know what does a dog’s breakfast look like kind of messy you know the

Thing is is you’ve got four-way races because we have to include the greens as part of the mix and siphoning off some votes but uh you know right now the Vancouver was very good for the Liberals last time around but when we look right now you know about two-thirds of the

Ridings are now in play in Vancouver we’ll see the new Democrats pick up seats also the conservatives and when we get outside of the Lower Mainland actually that will be bad news for the new Democrats and good news for the conservatives so you know with Vancouver and Toronto starting to unravel for the

Liberals that is exceptionally bad news we haven’t seen that in a really really long time still a lot of time for the Liberals they don’t really have to call an election till 2025 um do you think that that pours any kind of cold water on that idea of them having a 2024

Election and to that end do you think that they have enough time to turn things around well you know the thing is is right now the person probably best able to defeat Pier PV is Pier PV you know the Liberals have to hope that he makes some sort of mistake that kind of

Unwinds the advantage that the conservatives and now it’s 15 percentage point the advantage that they they’ve built up in the polls but uh I think right now for the Liberals any election in the short term would probably be devastating for the Liberals and they’ve got to hope that the economy gets better

Pier PAB makes a mistake why don’t we just say jug meet Singh slips on a banana politically he need they need everything to go right for them and everything to go wrong for the for their opponents and you’re seeing that in the preferred prime minister numbers as well

Yeah exactly because you know right now Pier PV has a double digit lead over uh over Justin Trudeau and you know you remember the Prime Minister usually has the advantage because that person is the prime minister sitting in the seat so the fact that Pierre PV has a double-

Digit advantage over Justin Trudeau is not good so you know the thing is is you know the Liberals are at 25 that’s not a good number because they’re only four to five points ahead of the NDP what will the NDP do if they start closing in on the Liberals because jug meet sing’s

Going to say maybe we’re going to pull the pin on this parliamentary Arrangement it it’ be interesting to see how he does that because right now he’s got a hand on the wheel of power and so you don’t know whether or not you know what what does that mean if he does call

An election well I think he’s got to deliver one more thing out of the Parliamentary Arrangement he’s got the dental plan he’s got to do one more thing so that he can go back and say here are two things that I’ve been been able to accomplish by cooperating and

Supporting the Liberals but I’ve had enough right because he needs some sort of distance you can’t one day prop the Liberals up in Parliament and the next day slam them because uh that’s that’s basically just a recipe to get punished especially if that next day you’re on

The doorstep looking for a vote okay we’re going to have to leave it there Nick Nano of Nano research thanks so much for being here

Pollster Nik Nanos says Tories are leading in national ballot support and that Liberals could lose key seats in any upcoming election.

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