Act quickly: Budget watchdog cautions of funding gap for Ottawa’s heat pump grant

Could the Liberals' carbon tax troubles light a fire under the move toward heat pumps?

Is Ottawa’s Heat Pump Incentive in Jeopardy? Budget Watchdog Warns of Potential Shortfall

The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has raised concerns about the future of Ottawa’s heat pump incentive program. In a recently released report, the PBO has cautioned that the grant program could face a shortage of funds sooner rather than later. If all eligible Canadians were to apply for the program, it would cost the government a staggering $2.7 billion, according to the report. While it’s unlikely that all 244,000 eligible households will apply, the PBO still predicts that the program could run out of money even if only the expected number of applicants participate. Yves Giroux, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, has advised those who are considering applying for the program to do so sooner rather than later, based on discussions with public servants.

Budget Allocation and Program Success

Currently, the government has allocated $750 million over the next five years for the program. However, based on the trend of approvals and funds disbursement to 10,000 households as of mid-October 2023, the PBO estimates that the program could run out of funds without an increase in budget allocation. The press secretary to Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson has referred to the program as a “success to date” but has not confirmed whether additional funds will be allocated.

The program offers homeowners in all provinces grants to switch from home heating oil to electric heat pumps. Eligibility is based on income, home ownership status, and recent purchase of heating oil. With the potential for a budget shortfall looming, Ottawa is encouraging other provinces to co-deliver the program to allow more Canadians to qualify for larger grants. However, the prospect of more provinces joining the program could accelerate its depletion, especially in provinces where a large number of people rely on oil for heating.

Environmental Impact and Government Initiatives

In recent years, the federal government has introduced a range of programs to help homeowners save on energy bills and reduce the carbon footprint of their homes. Greenhouse gas emissions from buildings accounted for 13 percent of Canada’s total emissions in 2021, making it the third-highest source of emissions. As part of its emissions reduction plan, Canada aims to slash emissions from buildings by 37 percent by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050.

The Greener Homes Grant program, which offers homeowners up to $5,000 for energy retrofits, was launched in 2021 with a budget of $2.6 billion intended to last until 2027 or until funds are depleted. Some predictions indicate that the funds may run out earlier.


As the potential for a shortfall in the heat pump incentive program looms, there are important considerations to explore. From the financial burden on the government to the impact on households, the future of the program raises questions about its sustainability and effectiveness. Finding a balance between supporting environmentally friendly initiatives and ensuring the program’s viability is crucial. Additionally, the impact of the program’s depletion on the larger goal of reducing emissions and transitioning to cleaner energy sources calls for a well-considered approach. Evaluating the implications from different perspectives and seeking input from various stakeholders will be essential in navigating the future of Ottawa’s heat pump incentive.



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