NDP and Liberals tied in new polling | Question Period with Vassy Kapelos

New polling shows the Liberals and NDP are now neck and neck when it comes to voter support the poll from Nano’s research shows the Liberals and NDP at both 22% support a pece with the conservatives well ahead of either Party by 19 points they’re also ahead of both

Parties when it comes to fundraising records recently filed with elections Canada show the Tories raised $23 million this year about $ 13.5 million more than the Liberals now keep in mind the tor’s also out fundraised the liberals in the last two elections and ultimately lost so what do we take from

The numbers both money and polling now our Sunday strategy session is here to talk about all of that Kathleen monk is a former NDP strategist and director of communications to the late Jack Leon Cory tonik was Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager and former director of communications for Prime

Minister Steven Harper and Scott Reid was a former communications director to Prime Minister Paul Martin hi everybody good to see you let’s start off before we get to the fundraising on the poll uh it’s one poll and it comes with all the caveats we’ve discussed you know multiple times Kathleen including the

Fact that an election isn’t tomorrow that it’s just measuring a sentiment in a point of time but pretty much everyone in every party that ever does talk to me was talking about this poll this week and the fact that it showed that the Liberals and NDP in a tie what is your

Takeaway well there’s the tie and there’s a number of polls that are really showing them closing the Gap and it’s that trend line that people are looking for and so new Democrats um should not get too giddy about this is number one and they really need to look

At how they can actually try to capture those disgruntled liberal voters but certainly it’s going to start the Liberals to start to sweat right and we’re going to see we’ve seen some announcements recently they’ve changed up their branding and communications director uh we’ll see if they come back

With renewed and you know energy in the new year but I I think that for new Democrats they are going to have to figure out how they can bring over those disgruntled liberal voters and also make sure that they don’t bleed any votes to uh the conservatives well and it’s

Interesting Scott because for the the first time in a long time this poll along with a few others this week is showing the NDP able to capitalize more than they have been able in the past on a loss of support for the Liberals because the conservatives have been the

Primary beneficiary of that loss of support do you think there’s anything specific happening there not really I think it’s just end endemic of the drift that we’ve seen frankly all year I mean I I think you know as we get closer and closer to Christmas in the end of the

Year liberals want to take 2023 to the middle of the lake and sink it to the bottom they have got to start a new in 2024 um the one caveat I would say I mean this is bad okay like let’s not there’s there’s no pulling pun this is

Bad bad but um for the NDP and they sort of look at it and go oh God you know look at this we’ve closed the Gap and all this it’s not like the NDP are barn storming up uh in terms of popular vote what’s happening is the Liberals are

Leaking and leaking and leaking and so you know I I think it’s pretty simple the Liberals have got to focus on what to do next and that that can’t come from your gut that can’t go by listening to what MPS say they heard of the doors or by what you know online fundraising

Appeals are telling you you’ve got to do research research research how do I get people to stop looking at the other guy how do I get people start to admiring me how do we get back because right now this is a cluttered confused agenda their message is not penetrating and

Their numbers are dropping on Scott point of kind of the objective being to take a harder look at the other guy the opposition leader in this case Pier PV and take a better look at the current you know at the leader I I imagine it’s challenging regardless of of your

Party’s strive this many years into your mandate to present this like fresh hopeful hey take another look at me what are your thoughts on strategically how they might be able to accomplish that Corey I I think you’re banging on uh it is hard when you’re at this stage in a

Government uh lifespan uh to to present yourself as new and different and having you know being full of bursting Force forth with new ideas and and new strategies to deal with the problems that people see confronting them uh especially around affordability uh you know it’s tough but you know uh I think

Scott’s right you gota you got to come up with a narrative I think it’s sort of twofold uh though vashy I think uh it’s it’s both going after uh after the conservatives but I think there’s also a bit of a per uh Progressive primary that’s going on right now as to uh which

Progressive party is going to be best suited to to actually lead that charge against the the the py of Juggernaut and uh I I think it’s it’s you know this is concerning for the Liberals I’m sure this poll is very concerning for the Liberals but imagine if they end up

Being two or three points below the NDP uh then you might see the wind you know really go out of their sales does that though kind of fold into Kathleen Scott’s point about sort of better characterizing I’m paraphrasing what he said but better characterizing or better

Painting a picture of the other guy and might that because in past elections that’s helped them right um secure the NDP support that they needed in order to to win the election they’ve been able to siphon off support from the NDP based on kind of people being afraid of the

Conservatives actually getting in power do you expect more of that but that’s the trade-off the question is can new Democrats do that better than liberals can they say he’s on the side of corporate Canada he’s on the side of Bay Street we’re on the side of the little

Guy the worker we’ve just got an anti-cab legislation we’re working for GST uh payment so you can make your life more affordable we’re taking on the big CEOs like those grocery CEOs and so if that’s what the election comes down to and they can paint that picture and the

Liberals are in that awkward place in the Middle with their poll numbers as low as a snake’s belly they the new Democrats might pull something off I want to fold in also the fundraising numbers into that part of the conversation scottt because how I mean you’ve talked before on this show about

The importance of you know spending some money on ads in order to paint that picture of Pierre POV uh what we do know from those numbers is that the Liberals raised a lot less 13 more than $ 13 million less than the conservatives in 2023 so far how much will that inform

What they are able to do well it it informs it significantly so like two things first of all the real story of those fundraising numbers are that the conservatives have more money than God right it’s like SC McDuck diving into gold okay so that’s that’s a terrifying Prospect because you know that they’re

Going to hammer you with paid media if you’re the government um but you know the other part is that you don’t have as much money to work with and what did I say earlier well one you got to actually persuade people that you are admirable that you are worthy of voting for and

Two you’ve got to persuade people that paev needs to be paused on and in order to do that you need research and you need advertising and you need money to get both those things so these fundraising numbers are quite concerning because they rob you of the ability to

Do what you know you need to do most to get out of this deep well you’re trapped in what about you Corey what do you think about that because the I think part of the story with the conservatives has been their massive adbi Scott alluded to it in order to kind of fill

The vacuum around who the leader was to try and shape His Image we all know by know the glasses came off the family was in the ads uh how you know does does do the Liberals need to spend a lot of money in order to counter that

Image I think they do I think that the old adage of you have to spend money to make money is kind of true in politics as well they haven’t been showing signs of life and you know this is a it’s a competitive business the conservatives

Have been out doing ads and you know you talked about pov’s image re redo you know that’s clearly driven by research so they’re doing that side of things too uh and ads are working which is a sign that the research you know was on Mark

So uh you know if they’re not going to be out advertising and and Andy are are are you know doing better uh you can really get on on the bad side of a trend line here where you know once again you you lose that Progressive primary and

And uh all of a sudden you’re you’re you’re not going to get that two or three points on Election Day uh that that you’re used to getting from having the NDP collapse that could go the other way okay I got to leave it there sorry Kathleen mon Scott read and Cory tonight

Appreciate it thank you so much when we come back the Federal environment Minister heads to Dubai for cop 28 with plans to announce the highly anticipated oil and gas emissions cap how critical will that be for the Liberals climate plan and what might the push back look

Like the scrum with Robert F Judy Trin and Rob benzy is up next stay right there

Panelists provide insight on new polling showing the CPC ahead of the NDP and Liberals, who are now tied in points.

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