‘How do we survive this if Hamas continues to rule Gaza?’ asks former Israel ambassador to the U.S.

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Michael Orin is former Israeli ambassador to the US and a former member of the knesset Ambassador Orin thank you for being here this morning good to be with you thank you lot lots going on today I I want to start if I can with this decision by prime minister

Netanyahu to visit Gaza with the troops what what do you make of that decision to do that during a truce well I think it’s important that Israel leader would go and visit the troops at the front line I think that’s true in any country uh in a war the award that is

Essential for our national survival I think probably politically it’s important for Mr Nan because a tremendous amount of criticism of him his poll numbers are how should I say this rather abysmal uh so you know it’s important for him politically to show himself up Israel Israel is a a country

It’s not like say the United States where there’s a commander-in-chief who’s the president the commander-in-chief of the Israel Defense Force is actually the government uh and Israel goes to war on a consensual basis you have to have tremendous amount of legitimacy in the government and in order to send the Army

Which is a citizen’s Army off to fight so uh the the legitimacy of the Prime Minister the person who heads that Coalition is extremely important for our ability to fight so we are now into day three of this uh truce Ambassador Orin uh it seems as though another group of

Hostages has been released how do you feel about how this is unfolding there was that blip yesterday with with some of the aid not getting through but Egypt intervened and it it it went ahead um how do you feel about how the truce is unfolding I think I probably speak to

The vast majority of Israelis and saying that our feelings are are mixed by natur quite naturally mixed one hand we’re delighted that these these hostages are reunited with their families and we hope for for the further release of hostages not just the the 50 that are scheduled

But for all of the hostages to be reunited with their families uh on the other hand we understand we’re dealing with Hamas it’s a terrorist organization it’s not it’s not an honest negotiator it’s not going to negotiate in good faith it’s always going to sort of move

Those goal posts whenever it can that’s the glip you were talking about um and will try to you know always try to take advantage they hamus conducts Terror not just physically but it also conducts Terror emotionally imagine what these parents and family members went through yesterday uh it will divide

Family members it will free a free a child but not the mother and that’s sort of emotional terrorism the idea at the end of the day for Hamas and this we have to keep in mind as part of the ambivalence is that hamus wants a ceasefire it wants a permanent ceasefire

Not a temporary ceasefire a ceasefire for Hamas means it when it means it gets away with mass murder it means it reorganizes itself and prepares to launch the next attack which is precisly what its leader said it’s going to do they’re not hiding that intention and so we have this very difficult almost

Impossible task of doing two things at the same time uh releasing the hostages and destroying Hamas where Hamas won’t release all the hostages of course because once it does that we’ll be able to for example flood those tunnels the 300 miles of tunnels under Gaza and finish off Hamas so it’s extremely

Delicate sort of painful balancing act that Israel has to do all the while resisting International pressure and I would say growing International pressure uh to give Hamas that permanent ceasefire I we are just getting worded well CNN is reporting Ambassador that the um that the four-year-old uh Israeli

American Abigail who was mentioned by President Biden on Friday has been released what what does that indicate to you that the idea that they I mean obviously she’s a child so that was part of the intention to release but the fact that she is also American I would IM IM

Would be significant for the Biden Administration it is very first I want to say I know that family very well old F old family friends and I’m I’m moved and delighted okay if I sound a little choked up I’m very moved and delighted um it’s important for the president the

President has gone out in the limb here he’s gone out in the limb generally uh for Israel um and is paying a political price for it his numbers are collapsing among especially young Democratic voters who do disapprove of his handling of this but that he has remained absolutely steadfast

In in opposing these calls for a permanent ceasefire he understands that’s that would basically be a victory for Hamas and and perhaps even the end of Israel he understands that um but he’s trying to also gain some credit and he went out in the limb and helped him

To negotiate uh this hostage uh release uh and he hadn’t really received any quit quot quo from it from Hamas which is precisely was again hamas’s goal it’s not just a a physical terrorist it’s also a diplomatic terrorist it’s trying to drive a wedge uh between Israel and

The United States and was doing that by not releasing any of the Americans so now Hamas gets a good headline by releasing Abigail it’s you know that’s the price of this hostage deal but I think it also maybe gives a little bit of help to to Joe Biden uh who has

Really paid a political price for standing by Israel do do you do you think that this truce could go longer obviously that that is part of the deal if if hostages continue to be released Israel will not strike back do do you think that it could go longer and would

That be ultimately a good thing the beginning of something um that that would stop the conflict well let’s play it out to the end uh Israel has offered an extra day of ceasefire for every 10 hostages released and they are equivalent they will will have been on the end of the

Ceasefire about 170 hostages still in captivity in Gaza so you can say how many days of a ceasefire that’s going to to amount to say just another over two weeks of the ceasefire uh which homas is going to want to play out at the end of

Day H is not going to give up all the hostages again the hostages are going to be their get out of Gaza free card um and even if they give up the last even if there were a perminent ceasefire and all the hostages were released Israel would still have to continue its fight

Against Hamas and I’ll explain it’s it’s not really not very complicated we have about 250,000 internal refugees in Israel people have been forced out of their homes because they cannot go back to their border communities because of Hamas if Hamas just reconstitutes itself and It prepares to launch the next

Strike uh Israel large swamps of Israel will become uninhabitable um right we have no tourism right now almost no foreign investment hamus will have basically won and maybe even POS an existential threat to the state I honestly personally don’t know how we survive this if hamus is continuing to

Rule Gaza and so even you know if in the in the best of all worlds um Hamas would release all the hostages and we would offer them a deal and I’m saying this I’m not an ambassador anymore so this is my personal opinion sure offer the deal

Similar to the the deal that we offered the PLO in Beirut in 1982 which is you know get on a boat go somewhere go to someplace horrible like Libya or Algeria and give us all the hostages we’ll let you go for free we won’t sink the boat

Um and that would be the probably the best outcome anybody could hope for uh it’s too early to tell whe that outcome is is in any way possible do you um do do you think that the release of the hostages changes what’s going on inside Israel because obviously there was an enormous amount

Of pressure on uh Benjamin Netanyahu to to do more here people were very fed up I think that’s fair to say does it change the way the people inside Israel respond to what’s happening yes yes it does it’s an excellent question because Hamas you they they may be evil but they’re not

Stupid and here they’ve they’ve created a precedent of Israel agreeing to a ceasefire it’ll be difficult not impossible but difficult for Israel to resume the fighting after these five days uh but also within Israel thas is seeded and putting wedges within Israel itself so keep in mind say 50 50

Hostages get out uh but the 170 remain those families are going to go to the government and say wait a minute you already agreed to a ceasefire yeah to get those hostes out agree to more ceasefires to get out so it’s creating a wedge within Israel itself um you know

My training is as an historian and looking back through history I can’t find another example of a country that had to make these type of decisions they’re just excruciating all the time um and there’s no good decision there’s only a less catastrophic decision uh literally and um you know they’ll be

We’ll be writing about this for many many decades to come right now um there again there’s no good outcome there’s only a less agonizing and terrible up

Rosemary Barton speaks with former Israel ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, about the third day of a four-day truce, the release of hostages and the role the U.S. played in facilitating the deal.

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