Who is going to govern Gaza after the war?


There are reports this morning that a hostage release deal could be imminent in return for a pause in fighting as we heard earlier the prime minister of cutter says he’s confident that a deal may be reached the White House has so far denied those reports Aon David

Miller is a former negotiator for the US state department and he joins me live from Washington good morning to you Mr Miller morning Rosemary how significant could this be uh this idea that there would be a pause in the fighting for three to 5 days and that a certain

Number of hostages would be released well certainly significant for the the hostages uh numbered maybe 70 women and children in exchange for the Israelis allowing uh probably twice that number of Palestinian prisoners women and Adolescence presumably in Israeli jails out humanitarian pause three to five days would be important it’s a it’s a

Positive uh twist uh however the numbers of negative twists are yet to come in this this cruel and horrific conflict uh are are probably um unknown at this point but if in fact a negotiation can be reached and in the Middle East usually negotiations have two speeds slow and slower so I’m not

Surprised at all it is a negotiation both sides are bargaining um what did you make of President Biden’s oped in the Washington Post yesterday uh laying out I mean he talked a little bit about Ukraine I should say but he also talked about what’s happening in the Middle

East laying out his expectations for what happens down the road in terms of who is in control of Gaza and what that looks like what what audience was he speaking to there and why did he feel the need to do that do you think you know on October 10th the president

Created a a very strong pro-israeli frame unmistakable message that the administration was prepared to give the Israelis the time the space and the support they needed to do what they thought they needed to do in Gaza I think what’s happened uh in in response to the humanitarian catastrophe and the

Exponential Cal number of Palestinian deaths president has tried to fill in that frame U with more balance uh particularly in terms of the day after but let’s be clear not even P the Oracle of Deli reading the best of Goen Trails can tell you right now what the day

After in Gaza is going to look like uh the president wants two states a very heavy lift president wants a new reality uh driven by a revitalized Palestinian Authority very tough lift some of this may possible but it’s really going to require a major commitment of Will and

Skill on the part of the administration and Leadership on the Israeli imp Palestinian sides do you think that there is a shift happening in terms of what Israel is doing in Gaza um that they are moving perhaps to a more um precise uh kind of battle on the ground

As they try and defeat Hamas yes I think there’s no question about that I mean the the numbers of air strikes which According to some experts are the most intense in the 21st century for three weeks even before the ground campaign began on October 27th represented a

Certain phase and I think there you saw a tremendous exponential rise in Palestinian deaths I think yeah now that they’re in Gaza City uh and there there are many neighborhoods still yet to be operated in uh I don’t think they’re they’re um confronting much resistance uh frankly from Hamas

Fighters but the main event is still to come and that’s probably in Han Yunis in the South where the Israelis I’m sure are persuaded that the senior leadership of Hamas who are their targets uh are in hiding what what impact do you think the um the bombarding of for instance the

Alifa hospital has done to Israel’s support I in the world obviously they’ve tried to provide some evidence that that that was necessary because Hamas they say is is not headquartered there but has a significant stockpile there and was using it as a base but how has that

Affected Israel’s support I mean I think it’s clear Israel’s been hemorrhaging uh a loss of international legitimacy and legit legitimacy in the in in the region as a consequence of the the cruel and unforgiving nature of the choices they face how do you prosecute a war against

Tamas in a densely populated Arab areas Palestinian areas where hamasat are embedded in the local population how do you surge humanitarian assistance into a war zone so I think there’s no doubt that the uh Israel’s operational clock is ticking at a much slower Pace than the moral or International legitimacy

Clock I think I think their assets there are are running down very quickly so as someone who has been uh you know at the table during these kinds of conversations so many times before what where where is this headed you you talked about more negative twists off

The top where is this headed next do you think I mean I I think the prosecution of the war is going to continue for weeks and it’s likely uh that there will be residual Hamas presence left uh the Israelis will likely remain in control of large parts of Gaza perhaps with a

Buffer zone perhaps deployment of their forces there will be an effort to must be an effort to deal with the reality that out of 2.3 million people half of whom are now displaced Winters coming estimated 40% of all the structures in Gaza City which had a population of 1.1

Million are destroyed it’s an extraordinarily large Galactic Challenge on the humanitarian side and it will not become any easier because the The elusive question Rosemary of who is going to govern Gaza uh is going to speak volumes about what’s possible with respect to both humanitarian relief and

Reconstruction um yeah let can I just quickly end on Benjamin Netanyahu I think when we last spoke it was too early in in this conflict for there to be open criticism of him I I think things have changed on that front do you anticipate that there would be any

Pressure even from the US side for Netanyahu to go before this is actually over I I don’t and and I just don’t think there’s a mechanism frankly to replace him as long as his Coalition right-wing most extremist in the history of the state of Israel remains intact there won’t be much pressure maybe

Pressure from the streets uh a a national Commission of inquiry is likely to be formed that’s going to take at least a year so I think um his departure I think is is going to occur later rather than sooner Aon David Miller thank you it will occur it will occur it

Will occur okay Aon David Miller thank you so much for coming back on the program really appreciate your your brain on difficult days like this thank you sir thanks for having me

Rosemary Barton talks with Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. State Department negotiator, on reports of a potential hostage negotiation deal between Israel and Hamas and what could come next.

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