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>> Andrew: THERE IS A WHOLE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE WAYS THAT ISRAEL COULD HAVE RESPONDED TO THE DEADLY OCTOBER 7TH HAMAS ATTACKS, WHICH KILLED 1,200 ISRAELI CITIZENS AND CAPTURED HUNDREDS, THE BIGGEST ATTACK ON JEWS SINCE THE HOLOCAUST. WHAT IT HAS DONE, 30-PLUS DAYS
OF AERIAL BOMBARDMENTS, THOUSANDS OF BOMBS, MORE THAN 11,000 KILLED ACCORDING TO HAMAS. LET’S PUT THAT OVER HERE. IT’S NOT BECAUSE IT’S THE WORST THING WE CAN IMAGINE, BUT BECAUSE THIS CAMPAIGN IS UNPRECEDENTED. >> SCALE OF DESTRUCTION HERE AND
IN SO MANY OTHER VILLAGES ALONG GAZA’S BORDER WITH ISRAEL IS COMPLETE. EVERY HOUSE IS GUTTED. >> THEY’RE SCARED OF DESTRUCTION. >> ISRAEL HAS NEVER INFLICTED THIS LEVEL OF DEATH AND DESTRUCTION IN GAZA. SO, WHAT EXISTS OVER AT THAT END?
OR SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. THE QUESTION IS WORTH ASKING BECAUSE THERE IS STILL NO ANSWER TO THE HARDEST QUESTION OF ALL, WHAT CONSTITUTES A PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE TO THE OCTOBER 7TH ATTACKS? MOST PEOPLE AT LEAST AGREE SOME KIND OF RESPONSE WAS REQUIRED,
BUT AS THE DEATH TOLL, ISRAELI VERSUS PALESTINIANS DID THIS, THE WORLD BEGAN TO CRINGE. >> I CALL FOR ISRAEL TO SURRENDER TO HAMAS, TO SURRENDER TO BARBERISM. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. >> Andrew: THE STATED GOAL IS CLEAR, THEY WANT TO WIPE OUT
HAMAS, BUT WAS THERE A WAY TO DO THAT WITHOUT SUCH A MASSIVE LOSS OF PALESTINIAN CIVILIAN LIFE? ALMOST ALL PALESTINIAN DEATHS DURING THIS WAR HAVE COME FROM AIR STRIKES. IN THE FIRST WEEK ALONE, THE ISRAEL DEFENCE FORCES, THE I.D.F. SAID THEY DROPPED AT
LEAST 6,000 EXPLOSIVES, EACH ONE AGAINST A SPECIFIC HAMAS TARGET, A BUILDING, A BUNKER, A HOUSE, A HOSPITAL, A MARKET, A MOSQUE. SOMETIMES EVEN SPECIFIC PEOPLE. BECAUSE HAMAS IS KNOWN TO EMBED ITSELF WITHIN AND UNDERNEATH THE CIVILIAN POPULATION, INNOCENT PEOPLE HAVE DIED.
>> YOU KNOW THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF REFUGEES, A LOT OF INNOCENT CIVILIANS, MEN, WOMEN, AND CHILDREN IN THE REFUGEE CAMP AS WELL, RIGHT? >> THIS IS A TRAGEDY OF WAR. I MEAN AS YOU KNOW, WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS, THE VILLAINS IS HAMAS.
PLEASE LEAVE THE SITE. >> IT’S BEEN DEVASTATING AND CIVILIANS HAVE PAID A HUGE TOLL FOR THIS. >> Andrew: ISRAEL HAS CLAIMED TO DO THEIR BEST TO SEPARATE CIVILIANS BY COMBATANTS BY DROPPING THOUSANDS OF LEAFLETS OVER GAZA, ORDERING CIVILIANS TO FLEE SOUTH.
HAMAS CALLS IT PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE AND TOLD PEOPLE TO STAY. SO HERE’S THE QUESTION, COULD ISRAEL HAVE FOREGONE AIR STRIKES ALL TOGETHER, OPTING FOR A GROUND WAR INSTEAD? EXPERTS SAY YES AND NO. THERE IS A REASON HISTORICALLY THAT THESE KINDS OF OFFENCES START WITH AERIAL BOMBARDMENTS.
>> THE OVERTURE IS OVER. THIS IS THE MAIN PIECE. >> THIS IS ON A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCALE FROM EVERYTHING ELSE THAT HAS GONE BEFORE. THIS ISN’T JUST AN ATTACK ON BRICKS AND MORTAR. IT IS AN ASSAULT ON THE HUMAN SENSES.
>> Andrew: IN 2003, THE WAR IN IRAQ BEGAN WITH MASSIVE AIR STRIKES. THE IDEA IS TO PREEMPTIVELY WEAKEN IRAQI FORCES, WHILE PUTTING SOLDIERS AT MINIMAL RISK. >> IF YOU ARE GOING TO MINIMIZE YOUR CASUALTIES, YOU NEED TO SHAPE THE BATTLE SPACE FIRST,
OTHERWISE THEY WILL SUFFER MORE CASUALTIES AND ANY COMMANDER WILL DO THEIR BEST TO REDUCE THEIR OWN CASUALTIES. >> Andrew: IRAQ IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF MANY. SO TAKE THE TUNNELS FOR INSTANCE IN GAZA. A HUGE MILITARY ASSET FOR HAMAS.
>> PART OF THE RESPONSE HAS TO BE TO DESTROY THOSE TUNNELS. YOU CAN DO THAT TWO WAYS, YOU CAN BOMB FROM THE AIR WITH BUNKER BUSTING BOMBS. THEY CREATE DEEP CRATERS AND THEY CREATE LARGER NUMBERS OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. OR YOU CAN USE GROUND FORCES AND
GO IN. THE RISK THERE IS THE TUNNELS CAN BE BOOBY TRAPPED, SOME ARE. YOU HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF MILITARY CASUALTIES ON THE PART OF THE ATTACKING FORCE. THAT IS THE DILEMMA. >> Andrew: THERE IS NO WAY FOR ISRAEL TO INVADE GAZA WITHOUT
INCURRING LOSSES AND ESPECIALLY HERE, URBAN COMBAT FAVOURS THE DEFENDER. HAMAS HAS MINES, BUILDINGS, AND RUBBLE AS COVER AND KNOWLEDGE OF THE TERRAIN. >> YOU LOOK AT THE PICTURES AND THAT LOOKS LIKE THE SEEDS OF STALINGRAD. I SAY THAT IS A LOT OF PLACES
PEOPLE CAN HIDE AND SNIPERS. >> Andrew: COULD MORE PALESTINIAN CIVILIAN LIVES BE SAVE IN A GROUND WAR? THIS IS ALSO A COMPLICATED QUESTION. THERE WOULD STILL BE ABSOLUTELY A RISK TO CIVILIAN LIFE. IN 2014, ISRAEL’S GROUND INVASION OF GAZA SPANNED 50
DAYS, LEAVING 72 ISRAELI AND 2,251 PALESTINIANS DEAD, MOST BELIEVED TO BE CIVILIANS, 550 CHILDREN. PERHAPS SOLDIERS ON THE GROUND MIGHT BE ABLE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN TARGETS. >> WE WILL STILL BE FIGHTING, BUT YOU CAN MAKE AN EFFORT TO
RESTRICT THE FOCUS OF THE FIGHTING TO A TARGETED AREA. YOU CAN SEE THE CIVILIANS AND DO YOUR BEST TO AVOID COLLATERAL DAMAGE IN THE FIRE FIGHT THAT OCCURS. >> Andrew: WHEREAS FOR A FALLING BOMB, EVERYBODY LOOKS THE SAME. >> THEY HAVE LEVELLED
HIGH-RISES, IRREGARDLESS OF WHO IS INSIDE. HOW MANY CIVILIANS ARE YOU PREPARED TO KILL TO DESTROY HAMAS OPERATIVES? WOULD 10 OPERATIVES FOR THOUSANDS OF CIVILIANS? >> Andrew: THE I.D.F. SAID THEY CAREFULLY WEIGH EACH ATTACK, WEIGHING THE PROPORTIONALITY ON THE STRIKE AGAINST A MILITARY
TARGET AGAINST THE NUMBER OF CIVILIANS LIKELY TO DIE. IN THE U.S., WHICH HAS BEEN GIVING GUIDANCE TO ISRAEL THROUGHOUT THE WAR, THEY HISTORICALLY USED AN N.C.V., A NON-COMBATANTS CUT OFF VALVE, A NUMBER TO SEE WHETHER A NUMBER OF CIVILIAN LIFE WAS DEFENSIBLE.
SO WHEN BARACK OBAMA WAS IN OFFICE, MILITARY COMMANDERS WOULD CONSIDER URBAN DENSITY, THE VALUE OF A TARGET AND SURROUNDING STRUCTURES SUCH AS RESIDENCES, GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS, APARTMENTS, MOSQUES, AND BRIDGES. IF A STRIKE WERE TO KILL MORE PERSONS, THAN THE STRIKE
COMMANDER WOULD HAVE TO APPEAL TO HIGHER AUTHORITY. NOW THE PENTAGON HAS SINCE REPORTEDLY STOPPED USING THIS EXACT METHOD, BUT IN ISRAEL’S CASE, THE PRINCIPAL WOULD BE THE SAME. WEIGH THE PROBABLE LOSS OF CIVILIAN LIFE AGAINST THE VALUE OF THE TARGET.
>> DOES THE STRIKE AGAINST AN UNDERGROUND TUNNEL THAT LIKELY HOLDS COMMAND LEVEL HAMAS FIGHTERS, BUT THAT STRIKE WILL CAUSE 200 CASUALTIES. ARE THOSE COMMANDERS LIKELY IN THE FUTURE TO CAUSE MORE THAN 200 CASUALTIES? THAT’S HOW MILITARY LAWYERS CALCULATE PROPORTIONALITY.
>> Andrew: IT’S HARD TO IMAGINE WHY ISRAEL WOULD FOREGO THAT MILITARY ADVANTAGE, ESPECIALLY IN A POST-OCTOBER 7TH WAR WHERE ISRAELI’S GOVERNMENT NUMBER ONE PRIORITY IS TO ERADICATE HAMAS. [♪♪♪] . >> Andrew: SO IF PRECISION BOMBING THAT CRITICS SAY INDISCRIMINATELY KILLS CIVILIANS
REPRESENTS THE EXTREME END OF WHAT HISTORY HAS SEEN IN GAZA, WHAT IS AT THE OTHER END? WELL, IT’S NOT QUITE PASS SIT VOLCANISM. I DON’T HEAR ANYONE SAYING ISRAEL SHOULDN’T RESPOND TO WHAT HAPPENED. LET’S FLIP THAT AROUND. IF ISRAEL’S ULTIMATE GOAL IS THE
SAFETY OF ITS PEOPLE, DOES VIOLENCE ANYWHERE ON THIS SCALE GET YOU THERE? THE U.N. SPECIAL RAPPORTEUR ON THE OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES SAYS WHAT’S HAPPENING IN GAZA RIGHT NOW WILL BREED FURTHER RADICALIZATION. NOW IT HAS REACHED A DANGEROUS POINT OF NO RETURN WHERE A
CHANCE FOR PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE HAS DROPPED OFF A CLIFF. PERHAPS, WE’RE STARING INTO AN ABYSS. >> YOU CAN KILL HAMAS, BUT NOT THE IDEA. >> YOU MAY TAKE CARE OF THE TERRORIST TODAY, BUT YOU ARE CREATING A TERRORIST OF TOMORROW.
>> Andrew: WHAT DO THEY MEAN BY THAT? CREATING THE TERRORIST OF TOMORROW. THE GAZA STRIP IS A PLACE WHERE NEARLY HALF THE POPULATION ARE CHILDREN. FOR MOST OF THEM, THE ONLY REALITY THEY EVER KNOWN IS LIVING UNDER AN ISRAELI BLOCKADE.
FOOD, MEDICAL SUPPLIES, FUEL, EVEN FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT ARE ALL TIGHTLY CONTROLLED. >> THIS IS GENERATIONAL. IT’S NOT JUST ONE EVENT. THAT’S THE BIGGEST THING THAT IS GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR ISRAEL AND THE REGION AS A WHOLE. >> Andrew: AS TO THAT THE
STAGGERING NUMBER OF PALESTINIANS KILLED IN CONFLICTS OVER THE YEARS. IT’S HARD TO OVERSTATE HOW LOPSIDED THE CASUALTIES ARE. >> THERE IS NO WATER FOR US TO DRINK, NO WATER FOR US TO WASH OURSELVES WITH SO WE CAN PRAY. THEY BOMBED OUR SCHOOLS.
MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED. IT’S NOT FAIR FOR CHILDREN LIKE US. WHY IS THIS HAPPENING TO US? >> I THINK ISRAEL COULD HAVE DONE MUCH, MUCH, MUCH BETTER IN EXPLAINING RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING THAT THEY WERE AT WAR WITH HAMAS, NOT THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE.
SOME MINISTERS IN THE GOVERNMENT,RA RIGHT WING GOVERNMENT, THEY BLURRED THAT. >> THERE WILL BE NO ELECTRICITY, NO FOOD, NO WATER, NO FUEL. EVERYTHING WILL BE CLOSED. WE ARE FIGHTING AGAINST HUMAN ANIMALS AND WE ARE ACTING ACCORDINGLY. >> I THINK THAT IS A STRATEGIC
MISTAKE WHICH HAPPENED RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING. ISRAEL COULD HAVE DONE A LOT MORE TO GET FOOD AND WATER INTO THE CIVILIAN POPULATION EARLY ON. >> Andrew: AND CONSIDER THE FLIP SIDE OF THE PALESTINIAN POINT OF VIEW, THAT PALESTINIAN SUPPORT FOR HAMAS IS NOT A SIMPLE
BINARY, YES THEY’RE GOOD, NO THEY’RE BAD. HAMAS WAS ELECTED IN 2007, BUT THERE HAD BEEN NO ELECTIONS SINCE. CONSIDER THIS, JUST TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE OCTOBER 7TH ATTACK, A POLL FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE, THAT’S AN AMERICAN THINK-TANK THAT DOES POLLING IN
THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY ASKED GAZANS IF HAMAS SHOULD STOP CALLING FOR ISRAEL’S DESTRUCTION AND EMBRACING A TWO STATE SOLUTION. NEARLY HALF OF PALESTINIANS SAID YES. NOW, IT’S JUST ONE SURVEY, HARDLY CONCLUSIVE, BUT IT UNDERLINES THAT THERE IS NO SINGLE PALESTINIAN PERSPECTIVE
ON THE WAR OR ITS PLAYERS. >> THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THERE IS A BIG GAP BETWEEN THE CIVILIAN POPULATION IN GAZA, WHICH IS TRAPPED IN THIS AWFUL WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS. >> Andrew: NOW, I HAVEN’T HEARD ANYONE WHO HAS ANY EXPERTISE IN
THE REGION SAY THAT ISRAEL COULD HAVE DONE ANYTHING TO SWEEP AWAY THE BITTERNESS THAT COMES WITH DECADES OF OCCUPATION AND ISRAEL’S GOVERNMENT DID DEMAND NOTHING SHORT OF A MASSIVE MILITARY RESPONSE IN THE WAKE OF OCTOBER 7TH. HERE’S THE QUESTION. IS THERE SOME KIND OF COMPROMISE
IN APPROACH AVAILABLE TO ISRAEL, A THIRD PATH BETWEEN UNPRECEDENTED MILITARY ACTION AND INACTION. FROM VERY NEARLY THE START OF THIS WAR, THERE HAS BEEN INTERNATIONAL CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE. >> TO EASE THE EPIC SUFFERING, TO MAKE IT SAFER, AND SAFELY
RELEASE THE HOSTAGES, I WILL WRITE MY APPEAL FOR A HUMANITARIAN CEASE FIRE. >> IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, WE NEED TO WORK ON CIVILIAN PROTECTION. WE NEED A QUICK HUMANITARIAN PAUSE OR BREAK AND WE HAVE TO WORK TOWARDS A CEASEFIRE.
>> Andrew: AND ON THE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE RESPONSES, THAT MAY BE THE CLOSEST THING WE HAVE TO SOME KIND OF MIDDLE GROUND. HAMAS CARRIED OUT A DEVASTATING ATTACK. ISRAEL RETALIATED ON AN ENORMOUS SCALE. WHAT IF EVERYTHING JUST STOPPED?
>> THE MOST LIKELY WAY TO GET A CEASEFIRE IS THROUGH A LARGE RELEASE OF HOSTAGES, WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS OF CEASE FIRE. >> Andrew: NOW I’LL ADMIT, WHEN JANYCE SAID THAT, MY FIRST THOUGHT WAS THAT THAT’S A REALLY
SPECIFIC NUMBER, THREE TO FIVE DAYS OF CEASE FIRE, BUT SHE ELABORATED. ONCE A CEASEFIRE IS IN PLACE, IT WOULD PROVIDE TIME FOR THE DIPLOMATS TO SEE IF THEY CAN DEEPEN THAT CEASEFIRE, ARRANGE FOR THE RELEASE OF THE REMAINING HOSTAGES, AND IF THAT WERE
POSSIBLE, IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO EXTEND THE CEASEFIRE. >> Andrew: THIS IS BROADLY HOW ISRAEL AND HAMAS HAVE DEALT WITH EACH OTHER IN THE PATH. THERE IS A EUPHEMISM WHERE THEY REFER TO MOWING THE GRASS. HAMAS BUILDS STRENGTHS AND ATTACKS SO ISRAEL BOMBS THEM,
AND THEN THEY GAIN STRENGTH TO ATTACK AGAIN AND YOU REPEAT THIS OVER AND OVER. LET’S BE CLEAR, WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 7TH, THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING, JUST AS HAMAS WISHES TO WIPE ISRAEL FROM THE MAP, ISRAEL NOW WANTS TO DO THE SAME WITH HAMAS.
IN THE GOVERNMENT’S VIEW, YOU DON’T GET THERE BY STOPPING THE OFFENSIVE. >> ALL THIS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION, THERE IS NO END TO IT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE WAR? IS ISRAEL GOING TO OCCUPY THE PLACE INDEFINITELY? ARE THEY GOING TO BE PEACEKEEPERS?
WHO WOULD WANT TO TAKE ON THE JOB? >> Andrew: IT’S UNCLEAR HOW LONG OR WHAT WAY ISRAELI FORCES WOULD STAY IN GAZA, BUT THE BROAD INTENT OF BOTH SIDES IS VERY CLEAR AND FOR AS LONG AS THE CONFLICT CONTINUES, THERE WILL INVARIABLY BE CIVILIANS IN THE
WAY. [♪♪♪]
Israel’s response to the deadly Oct. 7th Hamas attacks – which killed some 1,200 Israeli citizens – has killed more than 11,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health. Andrew Chang explores whether it might have been possible for an alternative response that could have led to fewer Palestinian deaths.
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